Rolls-Royce and the Teal Group's latest turbine helicopter forecast points to a shift in demand away from civil rotorcraft towards more military machines over the next 10 years. But the overall picture shows no increase in total deliveries for the decade on the 9,800 units projected by last year's report.
Sales of new military helicopters are expected to reach 3,705 by 2011, with 1,315 more machines in need of re-engining over the same period. This amounts to $75 billion worth, and represents 51% of projected demand, compared with 4,630 military sales and turbine upgrades, and the 45% market share estimated by R-R's previous 2001 forecast.
In contrast, predicted civil helicopter sales have contracted from 5,175 to 4,785 machines, and from a 55% to 49% market share over the last year. According to R-R, 480 turbine-powered civil helicopters were delivered last year and only a 1.1% annual growth rate is projected for the remainder of the decade, with deliveries topping just over 500 by 2009.
Overall helicopter sales are projected to increase from 761 this year to just over 1,100 machines by 2009, driven mainly by the military segment's 6% annual growth rate. This is fuelled by a number of major European defence programmes such as the EH Industries EH101, Eurocopter Tiger and the NH Industries NH90, while the US military is embarking on a number of large upgrades, including the Bell AH-1Z/UH-1Y, Boeing CH-47F and Sikorsky UH-60M.
The civil sector has been undermined by an unexpectedly slow recovery in the offshore support market, and delays in the emergence of the Bell/Agusta BA609-led commercial tiltrotor technology as the result of the troubled Bell Boeing V-22 programme. At the same time, R-R points to a growing demand for more law enforcement, fire-fighting and medevac helicopters in the wake of the 11 September attacks.
This, in turn, is driving up civil demand for both light and intermediate twin-turbine helicopters, but sales are expected to remain dominated by single-engine machines in the Bell 407 and Eurocopter EC120 class.
The military segment, by contrast, will be overwhelmingly driven over the next 10 years by intermediate and large twin-engine machines between 3.9t and 13.6t, which together constitute over 70% of the sector.
Source: Flight International
