A REGIONAL JET used to be defined as one for regional services: now it seems that a regional jet is best defined as one that every region in the world wants to build. It is a want that not every region, (nor the world), can afford.
The line-up of those who want to build a regional jet is growing, it seems, by the minute. Boeing wants to build its new small aircraft (NSA), with or without the co-operation of Japan (which wants to build an YS-X), China (which wants to build a 120-seater) or South Korea (which wants to build its KCX).
McDonnell Douglas wants to build its MD-95, but would also like to work with the Chinese or the Koreans or even the Indians. Daimler-Benz Aerospace (DASA) -which, through Deutsche Airbus, is the assembler of the Airbus A319 - would like to build the Fokker-inspired FAX, again with or without Asian partners, to follow on from Fokker's Jetline range.
DASA's big partner in Airbus, Aerospatiale, has designs for its AS100 and slightly larger AS125. Aerospatiale is also a one-third partner in AIR (the regional-aircraft marketing alliance which embraces ATR, Jetstream and Avro) which has its own thoughts on a regional-jet replacement for the Avro RJ. In the Americas, Bombardier wants to build a 70-seater as an extension to its 50-seat RJ line, while Embraer has just rolled out its EMB-145 Amazon.
Now it is the turn of IPTN, which wants to build a 100-seat 2130 regional jet (and accompanying family) to follow on from its 50- and 70-seat N-250 turboprops.
IPTN sees a market for some 2,700 80- to 130-seat regional jets in the next 20 years. Everybody, it seems, uses a different definition of what constitutes the capacity of a regional jet, so market forecasts are not easy to compare. While IPTN does not seem to be out of the ballpark with its estimate, it is certainly among the most optimistic. If the estimates are at all accurate, however, one or more sets of national fingers are going to get burned.
A market of even 2,700 aircraft in 20 years means an annual average of 135 aircraft. The market is never constant, so within that average it will fluctuate by 80-180 aircraft a year.
Assume that both Boeing and McDonnell Douglas manage to get their projects off the ground, and that one of them takes either China or Japan as a major partner. Assume further that the other key potential Asian partner from those two decides to go ahead with Korea, and that IPTN also carries on with its plans.
Assume further still that the various European manufacturers concede that they can be competitive in this market only if they pool resources in an Airbus-style grouping or that most of them decide to leave the field to a smaller European grouping. With Bombardier and Embraer building smaller aircraft, that leaves at least five new projects plus existing aircraft in this class (the Fokker 100, Airbus A319, Avro RJ, Boeing 737 500/600 and McDonnell Douglas MD-87) chasing a market which could be as small as 80 aircraft a year.
The new regional airliners, unlike the existing ones, are aircraft which, as Boeing has acknowledged, should sell for $20 million or less at today's prices if they are to replace the old, noisy, inefficient jets and slow turboprops which make up much of today's regional-aircraft fleet. None of them, despite the aspirations of their sponsors, is likely to cost less than $2 billion to develop. On an aircraft of this type, a manufacturer will be lucky to make $1 million profit per copy, which means that, in a market of the projected size, most of the players will never make a profit after paying development and production costs.
In short, no matter how worthy any particular national or company aspiration, and no matter how brilliantly conceived any particular project may be, the aerospace industry cannot afford to have so many manufacturers trying to build regional jets. It appears that manufacturers and politicians, are not ready to concede that argument yet, so the financiers who would pay for these projects and the airlines, which would buy the end result, will have to make the decisions on behalf of the industry and stop the market from entering an unrealistic region.
Source: Flight International
