Boeing attributes the 6.6% rise in its long-term airliner delivery outlook to three key factors, having reversed last year's forecast reduction after under-estimating the airlines' ability to deal with the downturn.
The airframer reduced its 20-year current market outlook (CMO) forecast slightly in 2009 (to 29,000 units), but has hiked demand by 1,900 aircraft to 30,900 units worth $3.6 trillion in this year's CMO.
"Last year we didn't appreciate how resilient and robust the market was, so that's why we pulled back a little bit on the forecast," says vice-president marketing Randy Tinseth.
A significant increase in expected demand for single- and twin-aisles has driven the 6.6% rise in the overall 2010 forecast, as a result of three factors, says Tinseth. Boeing has increased its long-term outlook for annual world economy growth from 3.1% in 2009 to 3.2%, while the expected demand for replacement aircraft has gone up because of a slight downward adjustment in the average retirement age, to 23-25 years.
"Over the last couple of years the average retirement age has increased and increased - it peaked around 26 or 27 years - and now we've slowly brought it down," says Tinseth. "Fuel price and environmental strategy has influenced the way that airlines make retirement decisions."
The third element is the increasing influence of low-cost carriers, adds Tinseth. "We assume that LCCs will grow at a faster rate, which combined with emerging markets will help stimulate demand and retirements," he says.
In the 2010 CMO, Boeing has raised its forecast for single-aisle deliveries by 8.7% to 21,160 aircraft and twin-aisle aircraft by 6% to 7,100 units. Regional jet demand has declined 8.6% to 1,920 aircraft while deliveries in the 747 and larger category have dropped slightly (20 units) to 720 aircraft.
Source: Flight International
