More than 9,880 business jets worth more than $130 billion will be delivered over the next 20 years, according to Rolls-Royce. The engine maker predicts that around 19,800 turbofans worth more than $30 million will be needed to meet the demand.
For the first time in any Rolls-Royce (formerly Allison) forecast, the figures reflect two major new forces which the company expects to make a dramatic impact in the next 20 years. These include the effects of "roll-over" of business jets from fractional programmes, and the "emergence of the replacement market" which is expected to grow significantly from now on says the company.
Fractional programmes are expected to account for 36% of the 9,800 total deliveries, and by the tail end of the 20-year forecast period are expected to account for between 40% and 50% of all the new aircraft joining the corporate fleet, says Rolls-Royce.
The "roll-over" of the first generation of fractional programme jets into private ownership is expected to stimulate new sales beyond 2010. This, in turn, will accelerate retirements of earlier generation jets which Rolls-Royce expects to already be well under way by then.
According to the forecast, some 3,580 jets will be retired between 1998 and 2017. The majority, some 1,346 of the total or 38%, is expected to consist of older light business jets such as the Learjet 23, Cessna Citation I/SII, and Dassault Falcon 10/100. The other large retirement block with 1,071 aircraft, or 30% of the total, is made up of light to medium aircraft such as the Falcon 20/200, British Aerospace (HS) 125 and Rockwell Sabreliner.
Of the 9,880 business jets expected to be delivered over the same period, the newer light jets such as the Cessna Bravo, Beechjet and Learjet 31A are expected to form the bulk of the business with 2,470 units or 25%. New light to medium aircraft, including the Learjet 45 and 60, Citation VII, Hawker 800XP and Astra SPX, will make up around 1,510 units or 15%, predicts Rolls-Royce.
Entry-level aircraft are expected to make significant inroads with 1,920 sales or 19% over the period. These will include the new CitationJets CJ1, Sino Swearingen SJ30 and Premier I. Medium jets, such as the Citation X, Galaxy, Fairchild Dornier 328JET and Falcon 2000 are expected to account for 16%, or 1,554 units.
Significantly, the "bizliner" segment - as the Boeing BBJ and Airbus A319CJ category is dubbed - is expected to account for a market share of 3%, or 255 aircraft.
Surprisingly, the far more affordable superlight category at the other end of the scale, is estimated at a relatively small 343 units. This category includes aircraft such as the Visionaire Vantage.
Source: Flight International
