Think again. A recent Iata forecast confirms that the region's growth rate is far higher than the 5 per cent annual rate expected worldwide in the current decade. Iata's latest projections estimate passenger traffic growth in the region at 8.6 per cent per annum between 1990 and 1995; 7.5 per cent a year between 1995-2000; and 7 per cent between 2000-10. As a result the region's share of worldwide international scheduled passengers is expected to grow from 25.2 per cent in 1985 to over 51 per cent or 375 million passengers in 2010.
These projections however assume a situation of unconstrained growth with sufficient airspace and airport infrastructure to handle the increase in traffic. Unfortun ately the lack of guarantees that adequate infrastructure will be available leaves Asia-Pacific carriers facing the daunting prospect of congestion at home becoming as bad or worse than anything ever experienced in Europe.
The ability of Asia-Pacific airlines to respond to growth by increasing load factors and raising seating densities and aircraft size will be limited. Market demands mean that much of the capacity growth will have to come from more flights, both by increasing frequencies on existing routes and opening up new routes (see chart).
The total number of movements in the region is expected to double over the next 10 years, placing an additional strain on the most congested air routes. Curfews and a growing number of non-stop flights will combine to worsen congestion during peak hours at most airports in the region. By 1995 nearly half of the region's airports are expected to be capacity constrained.
In Europe it has been clearly established that airport and air traffic control congestion aggravate one another. To quote from the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers: 'Asia is in danger of fragmenting into a European style airspace patchwork, unable to cope with the meteoric growth of traffic in the region, if a comprehensive regional plan is not developed soon.'
David Moore, Ifatca's vice president Asia-Pacific, believes there is a need for an aggressive approach to resolve airspace problems. While similar conditions now exist in Asia to those which Europe faced two decades ago, Eurocontrol is now on course to resolve the region's complex airspace problems, says Moore. 'No such initiative or political structure exists in Asia and we are in danger of ending up with a non-integrated ATC system which will be unable to cope with the demands placed upon it,' he adds.
Political will
Without drastic improvements, the forecast growth will soon overwhelm the capacity of Asia-Pacific's aviation infrastructure. There are solutions to the airspace problems, if the political will is there to adopt them, and the airspace is sufficient provided it is used efficiently.
The main solution in Asia-Pacific lies in the introduction of the Future Air Navigation System (Fans - CNS/ATM) which could dramatically improve the efficient use of airspace and airports in the region. Fans will permit a reduction in aircraft separation without compromising safety requirements and will provide more accurate navigation and tracking and better communications. Airport efficiency and capacity will also be enhanced as each aircraft's time in the vicinity of an airport is minimised. Runway capacity at busy airports will be efficiently used and ground guidance will be enhanced at airports equipped for low visibility operations.
The new system will require multinational decisions if it is to be effective, since satellite based communication, navigation and surveillance does not recognise geographical political boundaries for the operation of air traffic control services. Iata has proposed the establishment of a global agency under the auspices of Icao to ensure the expeditious implementation of Fans. Both Icao and some of the potential stakeholders in a global agency are now studying how to develop appropriate implementation systems. It is expected the South Pacific will implement the system by mid-1995.
The economic benefits of the new system will be dramatic. Icao has estimated that worldwide Fans could produce savings for the airlines alone of US$5 billion a year, while costing no more than the current relatively inefficient system.
Whilst individual countries have taken the lead in planning new and expanded airports, national action alone will not be sufficient. Just as Europe has found it essential to establish an airports strategy to develop the interface between airports and air traffic control services, the nations of Asia-Pacific will also find it necessary to maximise the value of their investments by consulting, coordinating and cooperating with their international neighbours to ensure that major traffic flows can be accomodated at both ends of key routes.
Some may claim that recent airport developments have dramatically improved airport capacity in the region. The new Osaka/Kansai airport has now opened, a new runway has been provided at Sydney's Kingsford Smith airport, and work on Hong Kong's Chek Lap Kok is progressing.
But these improvements are totally inadequate and will not meet future demand. The largest international traffic flows in Asia-Pacific in 2010 will include Japan, China (including Hong Kong), Singapore, Thailand, Taiwan, India, Australia and Korea. The facts do not support the argument that airport developments in these countries are sufficient to accommodate growth.
Due to opposition to selling their land from farm owners in its vicinity, Tokyo/Narita is still restricted to one runway with an average landing limitation of 28 flights per hour. Similar airports with one runway in other parts of the world can handle over 40 movements per hour. In Kansai, Osaka airport has been 25 years in the making and cost nearly $15 billion to build. Yet despite being the most expensive airport in the world very little new capacity has been gained. Environ mental opposition has held movements on the new runway to an initial 20 flights per hour and this will increase to just 28 an hour. Nor are there any plans to build a second runway.
The problems are very similar at Chek Lap Kok. The airport is expected to be full when it opens unless a second runway is available. However there are now encouraging signs that a second runway will be built.
It is true that the new airports are open for 24 hours a day, compared to the 16 or 18 hours at the airports they replace. But airlines will not be able to take full advantage of these extra hours unless they can find airports with similar 24-hour operations in Asia, or obtain arrival slots in Europe during the extremely congested peak morning periods needed to allow for departures after midnight from Asia.
There are some notable exceptions to the limits on capacity in Asia-Pacific. Singapore's Changi airport is a strong example of forward planning with development of additional runways and terminals currently underway and plans for large increases in freight handling capacity.
New airports are also planned in Kuala Lumpur, Seoul and Bangkok, while China has plans for over 20 new international airports. But it is not clear when some of these facilities will become available and there are still many hurdles to overcome before they can provide an increase in capacity.
Surface access is also a major cause for concern. In Bangkok heavy road congestion often makes journeys to and from the city longer than the flight time to adjacent Asian centres. Surface access is often one of the most neglected aspects of airport development.
For the passenger the journey does not begin or end at the airport. At both ends of the journey passengers have to go through an often lengthy and arduous process involving travel to and from the airport. If the passenger's journey is to be rapid, efficient and comfortable, it is essential that ground links to and from airports are improved to match the increasing capacity planned for airways and airports. Failure to make these improvements will simply transfer congestion in the skies, on runways or in terminals to the road and rail links that serve airports.
Europe is far from a model in this area. A study by the AEA in 1992 showed that out of 69 airports handling more than 2 million passengers a year, 35 had no existing or planned rail links.
Laborious procedures
Another major cause of airport congestion is the failure to develop customs and immigration facilities capable of handling the increase in traffic. Far too many authorities still demand unnecessary forms and laborious manual procedures when there are major opportunities to speed the flow of passengers and cargo. Machine readable passports and visas and the new hand technology incorporated in the US 'Inpass' system can provide greatly improved opportunities for rapid clearance. Sadly, too many immigration authorities are failing to take advantage of these new systems and are often drawing labour away from the more important tasks of drug and security screening.
Despite the excellent environmental record of the industry, the most serious limitation on airport capacity is probably environmental concern, much of which is based on mistaken and outdated beliefs. At the very least this can cause very long delays in obtaining capacity increases.
Germany's Munich airport had been under development for nearly 30 years before it finally opened after lengthy delays over environmental problems. Equally the runway problems at Narita and the costly offshore construction of Kansai airport are direct results of concerns over noise.
Public concern over the environment remains strong although the number of people directly affected by aircraft noise is now just 5 per cent of those affected in the 1970s, and jet engines built after 1992 emit 85 per cent less unburnt hydro-carbons and up to 75 per cent less carbon monoxide.
The heavy capital costs involved in airport development are another major problem. The $15 billion cost of Kansai is just one example of the financial burden of building environmentally acceptable airports, and the costs seem likely to rise as environmental criticism requires increasingly expensive solutions.
Empire State Buildings
In countries like Japan and cities like Hong Kong, land shortages and high demand have forced up prices. Building Chek Lap Kok on reclaimed land will involve moving the equivalent of 367 million Empire State Buildings' worth of dirt.
In addition in Asia-Pacific the emergence of very large aircraft with between 600 and 1,000 passengers will place increasing demands on airport facilities even if the length and width of the aircraft are restricted. There will be major requirements for new facilities to embark and disembark the large number of passengers in a reasonable time.
In Asia-Pacific alone it has been estimated that $100 billion will need to be spent on airports by 2010, and that in the same period airlines will have to find approximately $815 billion to buy or lease new aircraft. And as governments face increasingly heavy bills for development in other areas, it looks as if private funding and building will become increasingly important for airports.
However, whilst there are many problems with aviation infrastructure, solutions can be found, particularly if the countries concerned work together to find solutions. By 2010, the benefits of traffic growth to the Asia-Pacific region could total over 15 million jobs and nearly $900 billion in annual economic benefits. In 1992, for instance, Hong Kong's Kai Tak airport directly employed 24,000 people, excluding jobs at an estimated 75,000 airport related companies. The new airport at Chek Lap Kok should create 12,700 new off-airport jobs when it opens, rising to 37,600 jobs by 2011.
Iata's Air Transport Action Group (Atag) believes that for an effective approach to infrastructure investment to take place, it is essential to draw ministerial attention this issue. In Europe, ministerial backing, and the support of the European Union for the European Civil Aviation Conference's strategy on airports and air traffic control, have ensured substantial progress in the bid to eliminate delays due to congestion. It is now essential that a conference of the Asia-Pacific region's ministers of transport take place as soon as possible to create the impetus for effective regional coordination.
Strong support
The success of coordinated action by governments in Europe has confirmed that joint action at the political level is needed to find long-term solutions. The Asia-Pacific governments have already expressed strong support for a conference initiative. At the November meeting of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum in Jakarta, the US government offered to host a conference of transport ministers in 1995. The Apec ministers welcomed the proposal in a statement which recognised 'the need for accelerated development of transportation infrastructure, as well as for a better use of facilities.'
Atag believes the main goals of the conference should be to review future growth and infrastructure availability; develop a regional structure for the introduction of new technology; and commit to a cooperative plan of action within an agreed timescale.
There are now encouraging signs that the Asia-Pacific states are prepared to tackle the major infrastructure requirements that will be essential for future economic growth. However 1995 will be a critical year of decision in the region.
John Meredith is executive director of Iata's Air Transport Action Group, and is on secondment from British Airways.
Source: Airline Business
