Lack of alternatives to Space Shuttle puts Moscow in strong negotiating position
Russia is positioning itself to benefit from a multi-national agreement on the International Space Station (ISS) expected in early 2005, because it is the only partner that can guarantee supply and crew return flights.
NASA's Space Shuttle grounding, the lack of alternative supply flights and the pressure to conclude a new emergency crew return deal has led Russia to call for its partners to contribute more to crew and cargo transport. Since the Columbia disaster on 1 February 2003, ISS crew and cargo transport has been provided solely by Russia.
At the ISS heads of agency meeting late last month in the Netherlands, Russia's Federal Space Agency (FSA) said that it wanted to develop and launch its three ISS sections - a multipurpose laboratory, a researchmodule and a solar power platform - and that the FSA would have to make a 50% cut in its transport contribution in 2005 to do this. This would undermine ISS operations, forcing the partners to increase their contributions.
Russia knows that, with a final ISS configuration decision and mutual responsibilities agreement set for early next year and no immediate credible alternative to its annual provision of two Soyuz crew and four Progress supply flights, it has a strong negotiating position.
One outcome of the heads of agency meeting that strengthened Russia's position was the agreement for an ISS crew greater than three - up from two - at the earliest opportunity. This would require two Soyuz vehicles to be docked for an emergency return at any one time and four crew flights a year.
NASA's problem is that Russia's responsibility for crew return ends in October 2005. Because of the lead time for Soyuz manufacture and launch preparation, an agreement on crew transport by Russia is needed by January, or the ISS cannot be manned after October 2005. One obstacle to any agreement is the US law that prohibits NASA from buying Russian spacecraft.
Although the Space Shuttle's return to flight in March 2005 could compensate for the possible Russian transport reduction, the FSA is raising questions over its credibility because of NASA's budget problems. The deputy head of the FSA, Nikolay Moiseyev, says that the renewal of Shuttle flights "requires substantial funding, which the Congress has not yet approved. We are talking about a sum in the region of $1 billion. This is problematic even for a wealthy country like the USA."
ROB COPPINGER / LONDON
Source: Flight International
