Kevin O'Toole/LONDON
Saab Aircraft president Gert Shyborger says that Europe should look at the 30- to 35-seat market for its next regional jet, rather than the 70-seat sector being pursued by Aero International (Regional) (AI(R)).
The comments come as Saab re-assesses its future in the regional-aircraft market. Shyborger, who initiated the review after taking up the reins at the Swedish company earlier this year, confirms that Saab will not go it alone on any future aircraft programmes. He is looking at the options for joining in consolidation. He adds that an announcement is likely to be made early in 1998.
AI(R) has been courting Saab to join in its proposed 50- to 70-seat AirJet family, and Shyborger does not rule out taking a place on the programme if it becomes a real option. He says, however, that Saab is not yet convinced that the 70-seat segment is the right market for a new launch. He also points to the uncertanties which still surround the AirJet programme, which has yet to win approval from the AI(R)partners. In particular British Aerospace is understood to be reluctant to underwrite its share of the $1 billion funding without a stronger business case.
Shyborger argues instead that a regional jet in the 30- to 35-seat class could make greater commercial sense given the size of the existing turboprop fleet which is shortly due for replacement. It would also avoid potential conflict with AI(R)'s 100-seat-plus Avro RJ family and developments at the bottom of the Airbus range. Fairchild Dornier is already pioneering the sector with the 33-seat 328JET (winning ten orders to date). Embraer is studying the launch of an EMB-135, a 37-seat derivative of the EMB-145.
Shyborger admits, however, that the list price of any new offering would have to be kept in line with the $9 million cost of 30-seat turboprops, such as the Saab 340.
The figures tally closely with a confidential market study carried out in 1996 by UK research company Meridian International in response to industry interest from airlines and manufacturers in the potential for a 35-seat regional jet.
Meridian's economic modelling suggests that an aircraft priced at below $10 million and being operated on routes longer than 350km (200nm) should be able to meet the seat-cost targets required by regional airlines (see table).
On the basis of European experience with the 50-seat Bombardier Canadair Regional Jet, the study projects that the higher speed of a 35-seat regional jet should give it a 40-50%productivity advantage against existing turboprops. North America is expected to yield a market for around 100 aircraft to replace ageing 30-seat-turboprops on routes longer than 550km.
Source: Flight International
