Saab's days as a turboprop manufacturer are numbered, with the Swedish company working to an early 1998 deadline to join one of two regional jet programmes.
Gert Schyborger, Saab Aircraft's president, confirms that the struggling 2000 programme will be the company's last turboprop venture and says he will make a decision on joining either AI(R) or Embraer in their regional jet programmes by early 1998.
Schyborger has been reviewing Saab's commercial portfolio since joining earlier this year. He is currently holding talks with AI(R) over participation in the $1.2 billion AirJet 70 project. Antonio di Blasi, SVP product development and strategic planning at AI(R), confirms he hopes to have both Saab and Embraer 'on board by the end of the year.' But Schyborger has doubts there is a market for the 70-seater and is much keener on Embraer's 35-seater project, although he admits he has yet to talk with the Brazilians. He foresees the new project forming one side of a triangular portfolio for Saab's commercial aircraft business, alongside its spares and servicing and further expansion of its aerostructures business, including participation on Airbus' A3XX and more work for Boeing.
Di Blasi also foresees cooperation with Embraer on the EMB-135, if the Brazilians join the AirJet 70 project, and says this will be in the form of 'a commercial but not a product development agreement.'
The wooing of Embraer by the two remaining European regional aircraft builders is a response to the success of Bombardier. Indeed, the Canadian manufacturer even managed to steal a march on Saab just as the latter made one last concerted push on the 50-seater 2000. At the same time as the management of SAS Commuter was heaping genuine praise on the performance of its fleet of four Saab 2000s, the carrier was talking up its need for a 70-seater high-speed turboprop and promptly placed an order for 15 Dash 8-400s.
Indeed, Sash Tusa, the London-based aerospace analyst at UBS, suggest Saab may want to reconsider investing in new projects and instead concentrate on developing its commercial subcontracting work and its military business. 'It would be very hard to recommend that Saab put major new investment into a new regional aircraft as a risk and revenue sharing partner,' he says. Tusa believes there is only room for one manufacturer in each regional jet segment. He suggests Embraer could consolidate its position in the 30-50 seater market, Bombardier should dominate in the 50-70 seater sector and Avro, through its participation in AI(R), should secure the sector up to 100 seats with the apparent move into profitability of its RJ85/100 programme.
Mark Odell/Lois Jones
Source: Airline Business
