Forbes Mutch/London
Midway through 1995, it looked as if a new trend had been established in the world fleet of business aircraft. For the first time in many years of turboprop dominance, the balance tipped in favour of jet-powered aircraft. The lead was not substantial (a meagre 1%) but the number of turbofan-driven aircraft was definitely above the number of turboprops (8,046 against 7,768; Flight International 20-26 September, 1995) and there was talk that the divide would widen.
Twelve months later, however, this dramatic sea change appears to have been no more than an unseasonable squall. The balance has been redressed in 1996, with the total number of operational turboprops in the world edging past the 8,000 mark (to 8,129), while the number of jets has remained static at 8,045.
This may come as a surprise to the manufacturers, which have been concentrating their efforts on developing light business jets, arguing that the new-generation turbofans offer jet efficiency at roughly the same cost as the comparative turboprops. They continue to play a waiting game, confident that jet sales will eventually surge worldwide. In North America, the turbofan continues to outsell the turboprop.
Manufacturers will be less astonished by the distribution pattern of the world fleet, however. Of the seven geographical regions covered by Flight International's survey, only North America shows any significant increase in the number of operational business aircraft, with a total increase of 770 turbofans and turboprops over the 1995 figure. The increases in Africa (27 aircraft) and Oceania (18 aircraft) are marginal, and all the other regions show a drop in total numbers (Asia by 51; South America by 101; Central America, including the once-heralded boom-country Mexico, by 103; and Europe, including Russia, by 200).
Based on this year's third-quarter results, the US General Aviation Manufacturers Association (GAMA) suggests that North American manufacturers can expect to see a continuation of this growth. After nine months, a total of 348 turboprops and turbofans had been shipped. The figures reveal that turboprops were actually up 18% on the previous year, at 197 units shipped, but jets were 7.9% down at 151, against 164 units in 1995. Outgoing GAMA president Edward Stimpson is confident about the rest of the year. He says: "We look forward to a strong fourth quarter for manufacturers in 1996. Although shipments appear slightly lower for the third quarter of this year, fourth quarter shipments and billings will be the strongest delivery period of the year as industry revitalisation grows."
In its recently published report Outlook for Corporate Aircraft, 1997-99, the Industrial Financing section of US leasing giant CIT says that the market for corporate aircraft in the USA - turboprops and jets - will show "...modest growth through to 1999, due, in large part, to expanding global commerce and increased recognition of the benefits of owning a corporate aircraft".
The report goes on to say that dollar sales of new and used corporate aircraft should grow at a rate of around 5.3% annually, reaching $6 billion by 1999. "Dollar growth will appear healthy for two reasons: equipment price appreciation and product mix," says Thomas Hanemann, assistant vice-president of Business Development and Economic Research for the CIT group. While this may sound as if prices are on the increase, the CIT report says that real prices (adjusted for inflation) hit their peak in 1988 and have been declining ever since.
"We expect to see real prices for corporate jets level out," says Hanemann. "Prices of new turboprops, on the other hand, have been trending upward in both nominal and real terms." He goes on to say, however, that, as jets sell at a substantial premium to turboprops - 2.5 times on average - jet transactions result in a "significant share of the dollar sales".
The picture in Europe reflects a tougher environment for business aircraft, although recently appointed chairman of the European Business Aviation Association, Brian Humphries, is less concerned about the decline in operational aircraft than might be supposed.
"We have seen quite a lot in the press about how numbers of business aircraft in Europe have come down by as much as 25%, and that those figures reflect less use of corporate aircraft," he says, "but the figures hide the greater utilisation of aircraft." He says that many company flight departments, like other sectors of industry, have shared the burden of rationalisation, and may be doing the same amount of work with fewer resources.
"A company with four aircraft, for example, might cut its fleet by 25%, which suggests that 25% less work is being undertaken. Actually, the work may be reduced by only 10% because the aircraft that remain in the fleet are made to earn their keep."
That may be reassuring to the business community as a whole, but it offers cold comfort to the manufacturers which are trying to crack the European market and sell aircraft.
The Flight International corporate aircraft useage survey is prepared by Aviation Data Services (known as AvData) : POBox 2398, Wichita, Kansas 67201-9808, USA; Tel: +1(316) 262 1491; Fax: +1 (316) 262 5333. Email: avdata@wichita.fn.net
The figures are correct as of 30 September. They include only operational aircraft, and do not include manufacturers' demonstrator models or aircraft waiting for delivery.
Source: Flight International
