South African Airways (SAA) plans to select in mid-2009 one manufacturer to supply replacements for its entire 50-aircraft fleet by 2020, as well a modest amount of growth aircraft.
SAA head of business development Jason Krause says the Star Alliance carrier has put Airbus and Boeing "on notice" to expect a request for proposals in early 2009 for narrowbodies as well as both current and new generation widebodies.
He says SAA is hoping to begin deliveries of current-generation aircraft in early 2010, as near-term delivery slots have suddenly become available due to the current economic downturn, while Airbus A350s or Boeing 787s are expected to follow from about 2015.
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Krause reveals SAA already has completed a draft request for proposals and is in the process of hiring an advisor to help it prepare a final version by the end of the first quarter of 2009. As SAA has already shared data with both manufacturers and begun reviewing products, Krause expects the carrier will be able to make a selection in mid-2009.
"We've done some planning so we have a very strong sense what we want either way," Krause says. "Once we get proposals in, it won't take us long to evaluate."
SAA first revealed in May that its board had approved new medium- and long-term fleet plans and an "aircraft supply competition" would begin "as soon as possible". Krause says SAA has since decided to roll all its narrowbody and widebody requirements into one broad competition.
"We need a plan for both so we might as well get going on both," he says. "And the manufacturers want to have a more interesting competition."
SAA's most pressing requirement is widebodies as the carrier is capacity-constrained and unable to expand its long-haul operation. It is seeking delivery slots starting in 2010, which Krause is confident it can secure because "we've noticed some airlines are not taking up their slots". SAA is also seeking new widebodies to replace its fleet of six Airbus A340-200s in about 2013, as their leases expire.
Krause says SAA will most likely opt for A330s or A340s for the first part of its widebody requirement, even if Boeing wins the competition. "Boeing may have to help us get A330s and A340s because they can't unravel our fleet so quickly," he explains, adding that the carrier would need a "total solution".
For the second part of the widebody requirement, from 2015 to 2020, SAA is expected to replace its fleet of six A340-300Es and nine A340-600s with A350s or 787s. By the end of the programme, it will also replace the A330s or A340s it acquires at the beginning.
SAA is expected to opt for more than one type of 787 or A350, with the A350-1000 or 787-10 potentially being used on SAA's most important route, Johannesburg-London. British Airways and Virgin Atlantic Airways both plan eventually to use the Airbus A380 on this route but SAA, at least for now, has excluded the A380 from the current competition.
On the narrowbody side, deliveries could also begin as early as 2010 or 2011 as leases on SAA's 17 737-800s start to expire. SAA subleases four of these aircraft to low-cost subsidiary Mango, which has expressed interest in adding more 737s if SAA opts to switch to an all Airbus fleet.
Airbus is seen as the favourite in the competition as SAA's fleet is primarily Airbus and the manufacturer still has on its order books 15 A320s for delivery to SAA from 2010. These aircraft were part an order SAA placed with Airbus in 2002 that also included six A340-300Es, nine A340-600s and 11 A319s, all of which are now in SAA's fleet. SAA said in 2004 it no longer wanted the A320s but Airbus has never acknowledged the cancellation and sources say that, until recently, SAA continued to make pre-delivery payments.
Krause says SAA's chief financial officer is discussing with Airbus a method for dealing with the outstanding A320 order and this dialogue is completely separate from the talks that SAA's aircraft-acquisition team is having with Airbus in regards to the new request for proposals. But he says: "Obviously it's a decision that could have an impact on the fleet plan going forward."
SAA, however, is trying to create as robust a competition as possible. "We've allowed Boeing to see data in our organisation so they can start constructing solutions for us," Krause says. "They have the data they need. The RFP will just formalise this."
Source: Air Transport Intelligence news
