Continued development of new and improved derivative helicopters, combined with the need to replace ageing civil machines, is expected to ensure a static but stable level of rotary-wing aircraft sales, say two new market forecasts.
Rolls-Royce projects sales of 5,400 turboshaft-powered helicopters over the next 10 years at a relatively linear output of around 530 machines a year. Honeywell's nearer term forecast estimates sales of 2,300 helicopters by 2004, with annual growth slowing to 2.5%.
Both engine manufacturer forecasts suggest that demand for light single engine helicopters will account for more than half of total sales, particularly in North America. The next biggest segment will be made up of light twins, followed by a contracting intermediate market and small numbers of heavy multi-engine machines.
The corporate helicopter market is expected to remain buoyant, supported by a continued strong US economy and increased interest in Europe and Latin America. The emergency medical services and law enforcement sectors are expected to remain more or less flat, but the offshore support business is expected to pick up, fuelled by higher oil prices.
Earlier fears of a major influx of cashiered military helicopters are rapidly evaporating in the face of relatively small numbers of registrations since 1998. This is expected to fall to 10 or less this year, down from over 350 in 1995.
| CIVIL HELICOPTER PROJECTED SALES 2000-04 BY USER (HONEYWELL) | |
| Corporate | 35% |
| Utility | 26% |
| Emergency medical services | 9% |
| Law enforcement | 21% |
| Offshore support | 7% |
| Others (television etc) | 2% |
| CIVIL HELICOPTERS PROJECTED SALES BY SIZE (ROLLS-ROYCE) | |
| Light single | 56% |
| Light twin | 20% |
| Intermediate twin | 8% |
| Medium twin | 11% |
| Heavy multi-engine | 5% |
Source: Flight International
