STEWART PENNEY / LONDON
Despite the wider defence issues sparked by 11 September, military budgets throughout the world are set to fall still further behind the USA's
The second Military Aircraft Census from Flight International underlines the strength of the US armed forces and its industrial base. It also raises questions about the true market for the advanced trainers and light attack aircraft which are in development today.
The census shows that the world's military operates over 89,200 aircraft of all types (excluding recreational or historic types), slightly down on last year's 89,600. Of these, the USA accounts for the largest number. Apart from the Australasia, North and East Asia region - which includes China and its 10,000 aircraft - the USA operates more aircraft than any of the regions. Planned increases in US defence expenditure, along with sluggish procurement spending in almost every other country, means this gap is set to grow.
Force-size dominance is reflected in the largest combat aircraft fleets. Five of the 10 largest fleets are US manufactured, and the twelfth is the McDonnell Douglas F-4 Phantom, in sales terms one of the most successful jet fighters of all time. The picture is similar in the transport/tanker, trainer and helicopter markets. Soviet-designed aircraft comprise the other five of the top 10, and are the biggest rivals to the USA's supremacy. But, of course, the Soviet Union no longer exists, and, as a consequence, poses no threat. And while the RSK MiG-29 Fulcrum and Sukhoi Su-27/30/33 Flanker family are seventh and nineth in the list, sales of both are flagging, and replacement programmes appear a long way off, despite Moscow's moves to push forward with the LFI, Russia's next-generation multirole fighter.
Age concerns
Lockheed Martin's F-16 has climbed to the top of the list, having secured a number of deals in 2001, while the MikoyanMiG-19/Shenyang F-6 family, is becoming increasingly decrepit, a problem for any type that is long out of production. Mikoyan MiG-21 Fishbed/Chengdu F-7 numbers have also slipped back as age has taken its toll, although upgrade programmes ensure that many will remain in service for at least the next 10 years.
Soviet-era helicopters lead the two rotorcraft lists - but there is no replacement for either the Mil Mi-8/17 or Mi-24/25/35 in Russian forces, suggesting that the Mi-17 and its variants, the Mi-171/172, could find a ready international market, as could the Mi-24 upgrades developed for Russia.
Upgrading remains a popular means of maintaining capability without the expense of a new platform. With some fighters - for example the MiG-21, F-4, F-16 and Northrop F-5 - many suppliers provide upgrade packages, other types are less well supported. Upgrades are not, however, without problems and can be hampered by integration issues - not only in the merging of old and new systems, but also combining the mix of Russian, Soviet and Western avionics often used in these programmes. There are also problems with fitting the new equipment. This has arisen with the F-5, for instance, where the selected radar has been too big for the fighter's slimline nose and another unit has been selected, leading to delays.
Replacing the F-5, and similar light fighters, could be the key to the success of a number of in-development programmes. Projects such as the EADS Mako and Korean Aerospace Industries/Lockheed Martin T/A-50 advanced trainer/light attack aircraft are designed to be cheaper to operate than frontline fighters, yet offer multirole capability and combat survivability.
With more than 1,160 F-5s in service, (plus around 110 of the closely related T-38 advanced trainer that are in service, but for which no replacement has been selected) this market is an attractive proposition. The question is whether this advanced-trainer/light-attack market is large enough to justify developing the Mako, T/A-50, Aermacchi 346 and others. Over the next 20-30 years, Aermacchi predicts a market for 2,100 aircraft in this sector, EADS 2,500, and KAI 3,200 - each manufacturer forecasts taking a significant slice of this market - in some cases 50%.
Flight International's figures show there are 4,090 advanced-trainer/light-attack aircraft in-service. This includes Aermacchi MB326s, Aero Vodochody L-39s, BAE Systems Hawks, FMA Pucaras, PZL TS-11 Iskras and Rockwell OV-10s, but does not include F-5s or aircraft for which a replacement has been selected (such as US Air Force T-38s) or aircraft that are unlikely to be replaced by Western-built aircraft, such as Russian and Ukrainian L-39s.
Replacement ratios
Aircraft are rarely replaced one-for-one - and considering recent competitions, a rate of two-for-three for combat aircraft is generous but not unrealistic, which would mean a replacement market of slightly over 2,700. However, trainer replacements are at a much lower ratio because of the reduced requirement for aircrew in most air forces, an increased use of synthetic training and the growing use of schemes such as Bombardier's NATO Flying Training in Canada. This means that a one-for-five trainer replacement ratio is not unusual. New orders at this rate would cut the market to fewer than 820 aircraft.
These figures will also be reduced downwards as not all operators will replace aircraft - some have several types in each role that will be replaced with a single platform, others will eke out airframe life for many years to come, and some will transfer light-attack duties to heavier machines.
This makes replacing the F-5 and other light-strike aircraft, such as the McDonnell Douglas A-4 and Sukhoi Su-25, a key driver for these programmes. As well as the 2,270-odd F-5/T-38s, there are around 250 A-4s in service and perhaps 200 Su-25s operated by nations that would consider a Western-built aircraft, adding between 540 and 1,820 to the replacement market.
However, many operators of these types will be on the potential Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) buyers' list, further diluting the market. JSF sales campaigns will be backed by "domestic orders" for 3,000 aircraft. Losing too many sales will require the amortisation of non-recurring costs of the new aircraft across a smaller fleet, which in-turn will increase unit costs. Logistics support for smaller fleets also tends to be more expensive, as the cost of maintaining spares provisioning has to be spread over fewer airframes. The size of the US F-16 fleet has often been pinpointed as one of the fighter's great export strengths by competitors over the last 20 years.
If air forces order new aircraft at a reasonable new-for-old ratio, and the light-attack capabilities of new designs are accepted, then the market could be around 4,500 aircraft, enough for all. But defence budgets are low and do not look set to grow much in many countries, despite the events of 11 September, and this will diminish the market still further, perhaps to as low as 800. The military aircraft market, therefore, stands poised for either radical change or deep disappointment. Light, low-cost but capable fighters have been marketed before, and the new crop may be as successful as previous generations.
Source: Flight International
