China wants to build its own mainline airliner. But earlier mistakes must be avoided if it is to become a viable rival to the heavyweights
The phrase "Chinese-copy" was used once by Airbus to describe how Boeing had adopted the A330 as the blueprint for the 787. After last week's revelation that China intends to grab a slice of the action in the narrowbody sector with an indigenously developed airliner, Airbus could be repeating that expression - literally.
The last time China tried to develop its own mainline jet airliner in the 1970s, copy is exactly what it did, producing what was effectively a facsimile of the Boeing 707. The type - already almost a 20-year-old design - was then in service with the local air force and therefore readily available for detailed inspection by Chinese engineers. Designated the "Y-10" and developed by Shanghai Aircraft, only one flying example of China's 150-seat, Pratt & Whitney JT3D-powered airliner was built. The aircraft took to the air in September 1980 by which time its design was already obsolete and it was retired after four years having completed just over 100 flights.
This time around China knows it must do much better if it is to complete the long march to become a viable competitor to the industry's two heavyweights.
The poll on flightglobal.com last week asked: "Will China provide a competitor to Airbus and Boeing within 15 years?" While as of late last week the majority of respondents disagreed, a third still said they believed that it would.
And ILFC's Steve Udvar-Hazy - one of the industry's high-profile soothsayers - concurs: "What makes you think Airbus and Boeing will be the only players?" he asks.
Hazy expects the country's confidence will grow if next year's Olympic Games in Beijing are successful, and if aerospace alliances are forged with Western companies China could become a formidable competitor.
Beijing recognises that the most viable way of achieving its ambition is to work in partnership with Airbus or Boeing, rather than going alone. China is an increasingly important market for both Western airframers, and has used its growing influence to forge industrial relationships - A320s are due to start rolling out of a Chinese assembly line in 2009.
A joint venture with Airbus or Boeing to manufacture a next-generation narrowbody could put China on the world aerospace map - until now all its aircraft programmes have shown little export potential.
But it has to be the right aircraft. China linked with McDonnell Douglas in the 1990s to build 150 "Trunkliner" aircraft developed from the MD-90 for the country's airlines. But the Chinese carriers hate being dictated to about what they have to operate, which was one of the reasons why that programme died and why sales of the indigenous ARJ21 large regional jet have been slow to take off.
The incumbent airframers face a dilemma. Should they offer a helping hand to someone who could eventually threaten their very existence in the world's fastest-growing aerospace market? For now at least "business is business" and expect both to be do their utmost to keep their powder dry with China.
Source: Flight International