Douglas Barrie/London
Against the dark background of an aggressive US military marketing push, the debut of the Eurofighter 2000 combat aircraft at Le Bourget still hangs in the balance. The decision is going all the way down to the wire.
Whether it makes it or not, much of the talk in the chalets will be of the Eurofighter. Even if the aircraft were not to appear, the focus of concern for those involved is in other areas. Progress on the programme, or in some areas the lack of it, along with renewed German bickering about the aircraft, will undoubtedly be more than touched upon.
If a debut for the Eurofighter is not to be, then Sukhoi may come to the rescue by bringing along the latest derivative of its Su-27 Flanker. Russian sources claim that the Su-32FN in the list of aircraft on display is really an Su-34 prototype of the Russian air force's next-generation strike aircraft to replace the Su-24 Fencer. It is a question of wait and see.
In May, Germany was on the brink of signing the long-awaited fourth memorandum of understanding (MoU), which covers the re-orientation of the programme; a re-orientation made necessary in 1992 when Germany threatened to withdraw from the project.
Only days before German and UK ministers were due to meet to sign the MoU, Germany's independent financial watchdog, the Bundesrechnungshof (BRH), coincidentally released its estimated figures on the cost of the programme.
The BRH's antipathy toward the Eurofighter is well established. It once criticised the project as being no more combat capable than the present generation of fighter aircraft, and suggested buying more Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrums. Where the BRH carried out its combat modeling, an unusual practice for a group of financial auditors has yet to be revealed.
Although the German defence ministry dismissed the BRH costs of DM170 million ($120 million) per aircraft as fantasy, the figures will have resonated in the public consciousness. The BRH's report will also have resonated strongly among Europe's other combat manufacturers.
Paris will be Lockheed Martin's debut at a European show. In the combat-aircraft sector this corporation effortlessly dwarfs its European competitors. It also offers economies of scale in terms, which may even impress the BRH.
US INDUSTRY GEARS UP
With half of Europe engaged in politically motivated squabbles about the imagined cost of the Eurofighter 2000, US industry is girding its loins, ready to compete in a lean and brutally competitive marketplace. The Lockheed Martin and the McDonnell Douglas board-rooms must be encouraged by the bickering afflicting the Eurofighter's progress.
Although it professes a desire to remain at the heart of the new Europe, when the subject of military aerospace is raised Germany retreats, to perch uncomfortably on the fence at the edge of the field.
This becomes doubly ironic when British Aerospace, supported by an economy which is often dubbed the "sick man of Europe", stands in the vanguard of those pushing ahead on a restructured European industry sector.
The best of the current crop of combat aircraft will be on show at Le Bourget, with the exception of the Lockheed F-22 and, possibly, the Eurofighter. Definitely at the show are the Dassault Rafale, the Saab Gripen, the Mikoyan MiG-29 Fulcrum, the Sukhoi Su-35 Flanker derivative, the McDonnell Douglas F-15E and F-18 and the Lockheed F-16. The manufacturers' minds are, however, starting to focus sharply on follow-on programmes.
Likely to be gracing stands in both model form and artists impressions is the US Joint Advanced Strike Technology (JAST) programme. Both conventional and advanced short take-off and landing (ASTOVL) variants of the multi-role balanced stealth strike fighter are expected to enter service around the end of the first decade of the next century.
The JAST project, which provides the sole focus in terms of current combat-aircraft programmes beyond the Lockheed F-22, is critical to US military-airframe manufacturers.
It is also of considerable interest to several European manufacturers as a potential collaborative platform and as a probable competitor in the export market. These issues are likely to contribute to the chalet chat at the show.
BAe is looking toward the JAST/ASTOVL, for which it is teamed with McDonnell Douglas, to provide a replacement aircraft to the Sea Harrier F/A2 and, possibly, the Royal Air Force's Harrier GR7. France's Dassault also has some secondary study-work on the project for US prime contractors.
While BAe is keen to become involved in the JAST/ASTOVL, thus keeping it in the ASTOVL environment, its position on the conventional take-off and landing (CTOL) variant of JAST is more intriguing.
Within the UK Government there are those, including defence procurement minister Roger Freeman, who see the JAST/CTOL as a candidate to fulfil Staff Target (Air) 425 for a Panavia Tornado GR4 replacement around 2013-15.
Conversely, within the RAF there are those who harbour serious doubts as to whether the JAST/CTOL aircraft will come close to meeting the payload/range requirements for a replacement deep-strike penetrator aircraft. A single-seat/single engine configuration is not likely to find favour within the RAF for a long-range combat aircraft.
jast alternative
Against this background, BAe and Dassault have been working on advanced strike-aircraft concepts as an alternative to the JAST/CTOL. The UK and French Governments are negotiating an umbrella MoU to cover these efforts, which also include the Rolls-Royce/Snecma advanced military-engine technology (AMET) demonstrator, and the GEC-Marconi/Thomson-SCF advanced planar array-radar programme.
BAe is now starting to argue for the creation of an airframe technology-demonstrator programme with which to meet the RAF and French air force's needs for what is generally called the Future Offensive Aircraft.
There have been many false dawns, when it comes to the consolidation of the European combat aircraft manufacturing centre. Perhaps the most recent was the intended merger of Panavia and Eurofighter, due to be unveiled at the Berlin air show in 1992. German politics torpedoed this effort, which some saw as the first step to creating a pan-European combat aircraft consortium.
At Le Bourget, BAe may take the opportunity to spell out in detail just what its tie-up with Saab Aircraft on the JAS39 Gripen really entails. Letters of intent have been signed and the final agreement is imminent.
Important as the Swedish deal is in filling a gap in BAe's combat-aircraft portfolio (where the Gripen will sit comfortably between the Hawk or its follow-on and the Eurofighter), the key elements in shaping the future of the European combat-aircraft sector rest in France and Germany.
An FOA technology demonstrator could have an importance far beyond the development of a deep-strike aircraft in establishing a framework through which BAe's and Dassault's combat aircraft groups can be brought closer together.
Daimler Benz Aerospace's (DASA) radar unit is now negotiating to join the GEC/Thomson-CSF radar project - an announcement covering this might be made at Paris. Similarly, DASA company MTU would like to get on board the Rolls-Royce/Snecma engine programme.
For the moment, however, Germany is viewed with little enthusiasm as a future military manufacturing partner by the UK. France, despite grand collaborative gestures and declarations, has ensured that it has the upper hand when it enters industrial alliances with Germany. Eurocopter, the Franco-German helicopter manufacturer, retains a distinctly French flavour, for example.
Despite political and industrial differences, future Anglo-French collaborative programmes are unlikely to suffer from as many doubts and fears as have those involving Germany. France and the UK would also be wise to try to make space for Germany in any collaboration, even as a junior partner.
Germany's partner nations in Eurofighter (Italy, Spain and the UK) will be looking to DASA officials attending the show, and any passing senior German politicians, for re-assurances on resolving the hiatus on MoU Four, and on Germany's continued commitment to the programme. With the divisive issue of production workshare next on the agenda once MoU Four is ticked off, a steadying hand will be required.
Like the Eurofighter, Sukhoi's thrust-vectoring Su-35 advanced Su-27 Flanker derivative was expected for Farnborough in 1994. Like the former, it did not show up.
Bort 711, the Su-35 thought to be fitted with thrust-vectoring (TV) nozzles, is now under test at the Zhukovsky flight-test research centre near Moscow. Given the somewhat mischievous nature of the bureau's chief designer, Mikhail Simonov, it might turn up.
It would be fortuitous if it did. Rockwell/DASA are working hard to put together a flying display for their high-angle-of- attack/thrust-vectoring technology demonstrator, the X-31. Comparing the TV technology of both aircraft, even if only on the ground, would be of considerable interest.
Images of what is described as a thrust-vectoring testbed for the Sukhoi aircraft, show a robust and somewhat conservative approach to the technology when compared to the more graceful solutions emerging from the West. As has become all-too-apparent with both aircraft and missile systems, however, this is no reason for contempt or complacency.
If Rockwell and DASA do succeed in putting together a flying programme, then attendees at the show are likely to see a display that will put the near-legendary Pugachev's Cobra into perspective.
The X-31, in air-combat tests flown against a McDonnell Douglas F-18, recorded some 80% clean "kills" in both infra-red (IR) missile and gun engagements. The overwhelming advantage of the X-31 was its post-stall manoeuvrability, allowing it to more quickly engage its target by turning inside the envelope of a conventional fighter. A demonstration of this at Le Bourget would be an interesting spectacle. It would be made all the more interesting if the audience were able to compare it with a thrust- vectoring flight display from an Su-35.
TRAINER TURMOIL
Another potential Russian debutante at the show will be Yakovlev's Yak-130 advanced jet trainer. The first prototype has been completed at the company's Lennigradsky Prospekt headquarters in Moscow. The Yak-130 is in competition with the Mikoyan MiG-AT for a Russian air force requirement to replace its Czech Aero L39s in the jet-trainer role.
Both companies have claimed that they have won the order from the Russian air force, although the air force appears to be insisting on a fly-off between the two aircraft.
The two design houses have taken radically different approaches. The MiG-AT is a conventional design with a low straight wing, while the Yak-130 has a heavily chinned nose with a swept wing. The latter aircraft feature will allow pilots to experience advanced fighter-like handling qualities.
Mikoyan had ambitions to bring its MiG-AT to Le Bourget as well. Although it is not on the list of aircraft to be shown, it may yet appear. Mikoyan's upgraded MiG-21-93 Fishbed will be on display. This aircraft forms the basis of its Fishbed upgrade package being implemented on the Indian air force's MiG-21s, although some avionics systems are being sourced from Western countries.
The upgrade market for Russian and Western combat aircraft remains a viable, if limited, marketplace. There will be several avionics houses displaying their wares at the show in the hope of getting business.
Another trainer programme, which will be focusing minds and budgets is the US Air Force/US Navy Joint Primary Aircraft Training System programme. After seemingly interminable delays and procrastination, the a contract award now appears on track for July.
Cessna's bid for the 712-aircraft programme, the Citation Jet, will have its debut at the show, while the Northrop Grumman/Embraer EMB-312 Tucano and Raytheon/Pilatus PC-9 MkII will also be present. The other contenders are Rockwell/DASA, with the Ranger 2000; Lockheed Martin, with the Aermacchi MB339A; and Northrop Grumman, offering the Siai Marchetti S211A.
Another pair of show debutantes are the Northrop Grumman B-2 and the Tupolev Tu-160 Blackjack. Both aircraft entered service during the closing stages of the Cold War, and their production runs suffered accordingly. The USAF is only likely to receive about 20 B-2s, while as few as five Tu-160s are operational from the Russian air force's strategic bomber base at Engels. There will be more than a hint of "Jurassic Aircraft Park" if the B-2 and the Tu-160 are in the vicinity of each other.
maritime-patrol upgrades
The UK, the Netherlands and Germany all have maritime-patrol-aircraft upgrades or replacement programmes in the pipeline. Germany is carrying out a life-extension programme on its fleet of Dassault Atlantic MPAs, while the Netherlands is looking to upgrade its fleet of Lockheed P-3s. Both the Atlantic or its successor, the Atlantique II, and the P-3 will be on display.
The BAe Nimrod is the third contender for the UK's Replacement MPA programme. Despite a relatively small purchase of airframes, likely to be around 20, the competition will be fierce. In these austere times any business is worth fighting for.
While there will be enough military hardware on the flight line to capture the attention of most people, the main talking points of this Paris show will be of the shape of things to come in terms of the next generation of combat aircraft and of the European industry.
With companies such as Lockheed Martin stalking the halls at Paris, European combat aircraft manufacturers will have to be on their mettle.
It will be the responsibility of companies such Dassault and BAe to lead the way in ensuring that the next European combat-aircraft programme, be it FOA or whatever, is a truly European project, encompassing all the major players.
A repeat of the European Fighter Aircraft/Eurofighter farrago, first with France, when it pulled out of the programme, and then with Germany, when it did then did not withdraw, must not be a template for future collaboration. If it is it will only play into the hands of US companies such as Lockheed Martin.
Source: Flight International
