Turboprops turn the corner

In an otherwise flat 2004, ATR and Bombardier's Q Series businesses began a gradual recovery in market ruled by jets

The past 12 months have witnessed the beginning of a recovery in turboprop airliner sales, albeit in a market that is still dominated by the regional jet. ATR and Bombardier's turboprop orders are the healthiest they have been for a number of years, while regional jet sales and deliveries have stabilised.

In overall terms, the regional manufacturers had a flat 2004 in both deliveries and output, with 350 deliveries and 300 net orders. The slight drop in the jet totals was offset by increases for the turboprops. The latter category's backlog increased by 25% in 2004 to 61 aircraft at the end of the year, its highest since 2001. And the 2004 figures exclude the two recent turboprop orders from Air Deccan for 30 ATR 72s and FlyBe for 20 Dash 8 Q400s, which were both signed this year.

The current outlook for the jet sector is that output will fall around 10% from the 320 shipments in 2004 to 280 aircraft this year. With the prospect of continuing high fuel prices and additional turboprop fleet replacement deals in the offing, 2005 could well see the manufacturers of propeller-driven airliners build further on their 2004 recovery. But the fact remains that turboprop production is around one-tenth of what it was a decade ago, and the backlog is less than 10% of the total for all regional types.

Bombardier leads

Bombardier was again the most prolific regional aircraft producer last year, delivering 194 Dash 8s and CRJs, which represented 55% of all aircraft built. Production was down by almost 20% on 2003 as a result of a 20% decline in CRJ deliveries to 175 units. A similar reduction is forecast this year, to around 130 units.

The smaller CRJ200/440 model was the powerhouse of Bombardier's production again in 2004, representing over 60% of its total regional jet output. However the CRJ200/440 rate is being cut this year to around 50 aircraft, while CRJ700/900 will remain stable at around just over 70 units. Net orders increased 80% in 2004 to at 130, with sales divided roughly evenly between the 50-seat CRJ200 and the larger CRJ700/900 family.

The Canadian manufacturer matched its 2003 performance in the turboprop market, delivering 19 Dash 8 Q Series models and taking orders for 32. This has enabled it to grow the backlog almost 40% to 47 aircraft - the highest it has been since 2001.

Overall, Bombardier's regional aircraft backlog declined by 10% to 276 units. Perhaps this may provide even more incentive for the company to firm up plans to move out of the traditional regional airliner sector and develop a new larger family of aircraft. A decision on whether to go ahead with the 110/130-seat CSeries family is due by the end of March.

Embraer's deliveries surged by 50% in 2004 to 134 aircraft (excluding 14 military and Legacy corporate ERJ models), as customer deliveries finally began of the new 170 regional jet family. This saw Embraer's share of the regional market increase from 27% in 2003 to just under 40% last year. The manufacturer is aiming to keep production stabilised over the next two years at 145 units annually (including non-airline versions).

Output of the 37-to 50-seat ERJ-145 family was flat, so the overall increase in shipments was down to Embraer 170 deliveries starting. This figure could have been higher had deliveries to 170 launch customer US Airways Express not been suspended after the parent company's bankruptcy filing in September.

After the strong performance in deliveries, Embraer's order intake was a less happy story, with its sales declining by 22% to 108. However, the 139 orders it received in 2003 included the 100-aircraft launch deal from JetBlue for the Embraer 190. The new 170/190 family large regional jet models had a reasonable year in 2004 with 98 orders being placed, but the 145 family suffered a second consecutive year in which net orders scraped into double figures.

Last year also saw the launch of licensed production of the ERJ-145 family in China, with the Brazilian company's Harbin Embraer joint venture starting deliveries of the locally built aircraft to the only customer so far confirmed - China Southern Airlines.

The increase in deliveries combined with the fall in orders pushed Embraer's overall backlog down 24% to 400 aircraft, but this is by far the largest in the regional sector and getting on for double that for Bombardier's CRJ models.

Stronger ATR

ATR had a stronger performance in 2004, with its output increasing 40% to 13 and the 12 new orders not being offset by a large number of cancellations as they were the year before. The year-end backlog of 14 aircraft was similar to 2003's and represents about a year's worth of production. However, the picture changed dramatically early last month when Air Deccan confirmed its order for 30 ATR 72s.

AvCraft's efforts to revive the Dornier 328Jet following its purchase of the programme from Fairchild Dornier's receivers were boosted in 2004 when Haian Airlines placed a repeat order for five aircraft. The US/German manufacturer is working hard to reposition the 30-seater more as a corporate and special-mission aircraft than an out-and-out airliner, but has had limited success so far in terms of securing major new orders. With series production due to restart soon, AvCraft faces the task in 2005 of building on its 18 sales last year, many of which were for white-tail aircraft built before the previous company's collapse.

This year will also be crunch time for new regional jet projects in China and Russia. The Chinese announced one new commitment for the ARJ21 family last year, from Xiamen Airlines, but this is believed to be awaiting confirmation, so is not included in the table. Similarly, the launch commitment from Sibir for 50 Russian Regional Jets announced at Farnborough in July is believed to be awaiting a final contract signing, so is also excluded.

Meanwhile, the Antonov An-148 is undergoing a year-long test programme, but is yet to secure a firm launch order from an end operator. Until a firm contract is confirmed for this new 70-seater, it runs the risk of joining the long list of new-generation CIS airliner designs that never reach a sustainable production rate.

Regional Jet Orders, Deliveries and Backlog
2004				2003
	Seats	Deliveries	Orders	**Backlog	Deliveries	Orders	**Backlog
AvCraft
328Jet*	33	8	18	11	7	11	1
AVIC
ARJ21	70/90	0	0	35	0	35	35
BAE Systems
Avro RJ	85/100	0	0	0	4	4	0
Bombardier
CRJ100/200	50	75	69	123	132	55	129
CRJ440	40	33	0	1	23	0	34
CRJ700-701	70	52	51	70	56	-3	71
CRJ700-705	75	0	-10	15	0	25	25
CRJ900	90	15	20	20	10	-5	15
Total		175	130	229	221	72	274
Embraer
ERJ-135	37	1	1	17	14	0	17
ERJ-140	44	0	0	20	16	-80	20
ERJ-145	50	87	9	66	57	92	144
170	70	46	38	112	0	32	120
175	78	0	15	15	0	0	0
190	98	0	45	155	0	110	110
195	108	0	0	15	0	-15	115
Total		134	108	400	87	139	526
Jet Total		317	256	675	319	261	747

 

Turboprop Airliner Deliveries, Orders and Backlog
2004				2003
	Seats	Deliveries	Orders	**Backlog	Deliveries	Orders	**Backlog
ATR
ATR 42	48	5	1	4	3	10	8
ATR 72	68	8	11	10	6	-10	7
Total		13	12	14	9	0	15
AvCraft
Dornier 328*	33	0	2	2	0	0	0
Bombardier
Dash 8 Q200	37	1	1	1	1	1	1
Dash 8 Q300	50	8	18	20	6	10	10
Dash 8 Q400	74	10	13	26	12	23	23
Total		19	32	47	19	34	34
Raytheon	90	15	20	20	10	-5	15
Beech 1900*	19	1	1	0	1	0	0
Total		33	47	63	29	34	49
Source: Flight International/Manufacturers * Data from AvSoft ACAS databases **Year-end

MAX KINGSLEY-JONES / LONDON

Source: Flight International