As if further proof were needed of the versatility, and in this case lethality, of UAVs, then the November 2002 destruction of an al-Queda target in Yemen by a CIA-operated General Atomics RQ-1A Predator was it. To anyone still doubting the utility of these aircraft, this global wake-up call formed a dramatic epilogue to another 12 months of astounding UAV developments.
The year saw the first flight of Boeing's X-45 UCAV technology demonstrators, the first commercial trials of NASA/AeroVironment's Helios Prototype over the Hawaiian islands, and further military deployments of the Predator and Northrop Grumman RQ-4A Global Hawk. The potential for expanding military UAV utility deep within the US Army force structure is being explored via the UCAR study. Similar initiatives are gathering pace in Asia, and particularly in Europe where a host of HALE UAV programme studies continue in France, Germany and the UK. That the unveiling of the Saab-led low-observable Sharc HALE UAV attracted headlines at last year's Farnborough air show attests to the growing international visibility of the market and the booming industry interest.
Little wonder, with latest estimates of the value of the global UAV market edging towards $2 billion over the next five years. Business forecasters Frost & Sullivan say the USA will represent around 55% of the $1.1-1.8 billion UAV market until 2007. Of the rest, Europe will account for about 20%, Asia 14%, the Middle East and South Asia 10%, and the rest of the world 1%. By 2006-10, the forecast says relative spending will increase in Europe to as much as 23%, while the US share will fall to around 50%.
ISR is expected to remain the biggest chunk of the UAV business. The USA, the largest spender in this area, is expected to allocate $700-800 million a year here until 2007. Meanwhile, the pioneering Israeli UAV industry is expected to bid to become more competitive in the ISR arena, particularly in non-US markets - while other major traditional players, such as France, will consolidate market positions in areas like reconnaissance.
In the longer term, the strongest growth potential is set to be in the UCAV sector as work begins in earnest on development of systems for the US Air Force and US Navy, as well as on other international projects. Not counting spending on lethal UAVs, such as the recently funded MQ-9 Hunter-Killer (formerly Predator B), it is estimated that global UCAV funding will rise from $157 million in 2002 to around $470 million by 2007.
From experimental machines to highly practical aircraft in a few years, UAVs are finally coming of age
Glossary
ATOLS Automatic Take-Off and Landing; CARS Common Automatic Recovery System; CCD Charge Coupled Device; ECM Electronic Countermeasures; EO Electro-Optical; ERAST NASA Environmental Research Aircraft and Sensor Technology; ESM Electronic Support Measures; EW Electronic Warfare; FCS Flight Control System; FLIR Forward Looking Infrared; GCS Ground Control System; GPS Global Positioning System; GTOW Gross Take-off Weight; HALE High Altitude, Long Endurance; IR Infrared; ISR Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance; JPALS Joint Precision Approach and Landing System, Jdam Joint Direct Attack Munition; Jpals Joint Precision and Landing System; JSF Joint Strike Fighter; JSOW Joint Stand-off Weapon; LADAR Laser Radar; LE Long Endurance, LO Low-Observable; MALE Medium Altitude, Long Endurance; MAV Micro Unmanned Air Vehicle; MTI Moving Target Indicator; MTOW Maximum Take-Off Weight; NAS Naval Air Station; OAV Organic Air Vehicle; SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar; satcom Satellite Communications; SEAD Suppression of Enemy Air Defences; SIGINT Signals Intelligence; TALS Tactical Automatic Landing System; TCAS Traffic Alert and Collision and Avoidance System; Tesar Tactical Endurance Synthetic Aperture Radar; tUAV Tactical Unmanned Air Vehicle; UAV Unmanned Air Vehicle; UCAR Unmanned Combat Air Rotorcraft; UCARS Unmanned Air Vehicle Recovery System; UCAV Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle; UCAV-N Naval Unmanned Combat Air Vehicle; URAV Unmanned Reconnaissance Air Vehicle; VTOL Vertical Take-Off and Landing; VTUAV Vertical Take-Off and Landing Unmanned Air Vehicle
Conversions
1m = 3.3ft; 1kg = 2.2lb; 10kN = 2,247lb-thrust; 1kt = 1.85km/h; 100kW = 134hp; 100mm = 3.9in; 1km = 1.85nm
Source: Flight International
