Tim Furniss/PARIS
About 80% of the commercial launches between now and 2008 could be to place payloads weighing between 100kg and 1,000kg into low earth orbit (LEO) at altitudes of 300-1,000km, says a recent market study from the Teal Group. This forecasts launches of over 800 LEO satellites, compared with about 200 larger spacecraft to be launched into the traditional geostationary orbit.
This market forecast represents a challenge to the satellite launch industry and, in particular, to developers of the small low-cost launchers which would seem to be required to transport the lighter-class payloads into LEO.
With such a large share of the projected launch market made up of LEO satellites, this would appear to promise a lot of business for small commercial launcher companies. But their share of the projected LEO market could turn out to be 30% or less if satellite operators continue to rely largely on medium and large launchers to carry clusters of spacecraft.
GROWTH POTENTIAL
The potential growth period for the small launcher business will arrive in about 2003-4, when small numbers of replacement spacecraft will need to be launched to maintain the existing LEO constellations of mobile telephone, data messaging and multimedia satellites. This could total only about 50 satellites.
Small launchers might also get a proportion of the "start-up" business if an operator wants to orbit some small technology demonstrator satellites before embarking on launches of the full constellation. Launches of non-communications, remote sensing and science satellites may also come their way.
By far the largest segment of the LEO business, however, is the mass deployment phase, when operators need to get as many satellites into orbit as possible, in the shortest possible time to begin services. Such launches have already been started, with Motorola's Iridium and Loral's Globalstar, as well as the Orbital Sciences' Orbcomm systems, leading the way.
Boeing's medium-lift Delta II has launched Globalstar and Iridium satellites four and five at a time, respectively. Iridium operates 66 active satellites and has spares in orbit at all times. Globalstar and Iridium, together with new mobile-communication satellite systems which will soon be launched, could represent about 450 satellites by 2008.
Now another new market segment is emerging - broadband multimedia satellites, such as Teledesic's planned fleet of small spacecraft. This market could represent about 400 satellites by 2008, an estimate based largely on Teledesic's projected 300 spacecraft.
With the launch of two satellites on a small booster costing around $8 million, compared with $50-75 million for a medium or large launcher carrying 10 or more spacecraft, it is not necessarily cheaper to fly on small launchers. Flying 12 or so satellites on one large booster can be cheaper and more efficient, and gets operators into service much faster.
The small LEO launcher market may therefore be more limited than predicted. That picture appeared to change in September, when 12 Globalstar satellites plunged to earth after a computer shut down the second-stage engine of the Russian Zenit 2 launcher, illustrating the risk of flying so many satellites on one launch.
Globalstar claimed about $180 million in insurance and two further Zenit launches, each of 12 satellites, were cancelled and contracts placed with Boeing and Starsem, for four-satellite launches on the medium-class Delta II and Russian Soyuz, respectively. Apparently there was still no room for the small launcher.
As if to emphasise the point, the US Air Force recently awarded contracts to Boeing and Lockheed Martin which will lead to development of new medium and large commercial boosters, but which do not include the originally envisaged small launcher versions.
OPERATOR PREFERENCE
"Operators will still prefer the risk of flying large numbers [of satellites] on medium and large boosters," says Patrick Rudloff, vice-president for marketing and sales at Arianespace, a Starsem partner. "It is still cheaper and more efficient," he says. Arianespace plans to modify the Ariane 5 to carry satellite clusters, which may prove a prime purpose of the large booster.
Arianespace, however, has its sights set on entering the small LEO launcher market eventually, using the European Space Agency's planned Vega small booster. Other small launchers include several former Russian ballistic missiles, converted into commercial boosters. While many of these projects seem rather dubious, one - the Rokot - is benefiting from Western connections. The Eurokot venture, established by Russia's Khrunichev and Germany's Daimler Chrysler Aerospace, has already received contracts to launch two sets of three small satellites each for E Sat, starting next year.
The Rokot has been considered by Motorola for 20 quick-reaction launches of replacement Iridium spacecraft, and Eurokot has also been chosen by NASA for contract negotiations leading to the launch of two Grace satellites.
The Rokot is a flight-proven, two-stage liquid propellant, booster based on the SS-19 Stiletto missile. It made two successful suborbital flight tests in 1991-2, and one successful orbital flight in 1994, from silos at Baikonur.
Source: Flight International
