Graham Warwick/WASHINGTON DC
The US Department of Defense (DoD) has scheduled the critical next National Missile Defence (NMD) flight test for 7 July, amid growing debate over the feasibility and desirability of deploying the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) system.
If the test succeeds, the DoD is expected to tell President Clinton it is technically feasible to deploy, by 2005, a limited NMD system capable of defending the continental USA against an attack from North Korea involving a small number of missiles carrying single warheads and simple decoys.
If the test fails, and depending on the reason, the DoD could still recommend proceeding, and try to squeeze in another test before the President makes a decision on deployment, expected before Clinton leaves office in December.
The DoD has been boosted by an independent assessment that concludes "the technical capability to develop and field the limited system to meet the defined threat is available". But the review team warns "meeting the 2005 schedule goal with the required performance remains high risk".
The schedule has been compressed by delays and failures. The last flight test was four months late and failed to intercept the target because of a cooling failure in the kill vehicle's infrared sensor. This has delayed the next test by two months, just ahead of the DoD's Deployment Readiness Review (DRR) at the end of July.
The DoD needs a second successful intercept to meet its DRR criteria. If the 7 July test fails or is delayed, the schedule will come under serious threat, says US undersecretary of defence for acquisition Jacques Gansler.
The "long pole in the tent", says Gansler, is the need to build a radar site on Sheyma in the Aleutians, where wind conditions limit work. "If we are to make the 2005 date, we are required to start construction in summer 2001," he says. This will mean a contract award by year-end. Other concerns include a delay in developing a new interceptor booster.
Source: Flight International