Marion Blakey, chief executive of the US Aerospace Industries Association trade group and Randy Babbitt's predecessor as Federal Aviation Administration administrator, is nothing if not skilled at finding the full half of the glass.
As the world was collapsing into financial meltdown, she gave the 2009 Lindbergh Lecture at the Royal Aeronautical Society and boldly noted that during the 1930s a virtuous cycle of technical innovation, driven in part by military necessity, propelled aerospace through a rich period of development - and commercial success. The same, she predicted, would happen today.
Eighteen months later, briefing her members on the industry's 2010 performance and 2011 outlook, it is hard to say she has not been proved right.
Blakey pointed to year-on-year sales growth for the US aerospace industry since 2004 and, despite a challenging business environment, final figures are expected to show a new record of $216.5 billion for 2010, with more growth in 2011 to nearly $220 billion. A slight dip in commercial aircraft sales was offset by rising military sales, and the forecasting is for a return to commercial sector growth.
TOUGH SLEDDING
As Blakey put it: "There's no doubt that some tough sledding is ahead, but we have a good product and we can't be shy about stressing the importance of that product to the economic well-being of the USA."
Further, she added, rising imports and falling exports led to a 5% drop in the industry's trade balance, "but the surplus of $53.3 billion is still the strongest of any [US] manufacturing industry". Employment declined for the second straight year, but at a much slower rate than initially projected: "Losing jobs is never good, but when viewed in the context of the overall business environment, our workforce is holding its own."
The industry looks to be on solid ground for several years to come. The $195.7 billion of orders recorded in 2010 marked a 16.4% increase over 2009, after two years of decline, and the projected 2010 end-of-year backlog of $421.5 billion is more than double what it was in 2004.
Source: Flight International
