The relationship between freight traffic levels and economic activity is clear. ICAO data shows that freight traffic measured in tonne kilometres performed has increased in line with world GDP, enduring brief stalls and dips along the way. This has been met by increases in cargo fleet capacity. So with world GDP growing, albeit with a different global spread, freight traffic is also on the up.
The second edition of the Commercial Fleet Forecast, which will be published shortly (see box below) and has been expanded to include freighter developments, shows the trend towards larger aircraft continuing. Since the mid-1990s, an increasing proportion of capacity has been delivered by large aircraft. In 1980, the large widebody share of capacity was 30%. This had increased to 50% in 2000 and 60% by 2010. It is predicted to increase further to reach more than 70% by 2030.
More than half of the large widebody freighter fleet are Boeing 747s. With the exit of the Lockheed L-1011 from the active fleet, the decline of share represented by McDonnell Douglas DC-10s and the peaking of the share of the Boeing MD-11, most of the growth is being delivered by Boeing 747-8Fs and 777Fs. Both types have a healthy order book.
In this most valuable category, Airbus is missing out after cancelling its A380 freighter programme. Perhaps with many of its A380 issues behind it, Airbus will revive this freighter programme. Demand in this sector suggests good prospects for A340 or 777 conversions, should they be developed.
SHIFT TO THE EAST
As economic growth shifts eastwards, the significance of the Asia-Pacific and China freighter fleets has increased relative to the North America and Europe fleets. As much higher economic growth is predicted for Asia-Pacific and China, this shift is set to continue. North America's share of world freight capacity peaked at around 67% in 1997, but has already declined to 52%, and is predicted at around 37% by 2030.
In terms of aircraft numbers, the forecast says that there will be around 3,500 freighters in active service by 2030. This is an increase of more than 1,500 aircraft to serve growth. Of course, there will also be deliveries to replace ageing aircraft as they are withdrawn.
Since 1970, the trend has been for an increasing proportion of deliveries to be converted aircraft rather than new-build freighters. But in the last few years, the percentage of new-build deliveries has increased.
The history of freighter aircraft deliveries suggests that most new-builds provide the "baseload" of the overall deliveries, and that it is the converted aircraft that bear the brunt of the cyclicality.
lATEST COMMERICAL FLEET FORECAST OUT SOON
This article is based on new cargo data which appears in the second edition of the biannual Commercial Fleet Forecast, produced by Flightglobal's Insight team in partnership with aerospace expert Clive Lewis of Achieving the Difference and the UK's Bristol Business School. The report covers all aircraft used in commercial passenger operations with 20-seats or above, excluding the fleet of Soviet-era types, and covers six world regions including China for the next 20 years. The new edition of the report will be available this autumn. For more details see flightglobal.com/forecast
Clive Lewis of Achieving the Diffference formerly led the market and business forecasting team at LucasVarity, later TRW Aeronautical Systems and Goodrich Aerospace
Source: Airline Business
