A copycat of the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks on significant target buildings in New York and Washington DC would almost certainly fail today. And Osama bin Laden - the Al Qaeda figurehead who ­masterminded the operation - has been executed by the US military.

But, apart from a momentary sense that some form of justice had been done when Bin Laden was killed, Western triumphalism has been held in check. There is no sense, either, that Islamicist fundamentalism has achieved an objective or successfully made its point, unless its aim is to impose swingeing security upon travellers of all religious persuasions (and none).

But aviation is arguably safer than it was before 9/11, as the result of radical onboard improvements to security arrangements. Changes to security on the ground have not been fundamental, more a tightening of ­systems that existed before.

9/11 memorial lights
 © Rex Features
The memory lives on; the battle for security continues

The evidence shows that hijack attempts since 9/11 have been far fewer than before it, and although aviation seems still to be an attractive target for sabotage ­attempts, the attacks have all been bungled by the ­perpetrators because of improved intelligence and the obstacles presented by security procedures.

So, aviation can claim a degree of success in countering the threats to its own domain, but what of future risks? Whether tomorrow's attacks would be successful would depend on the inventiveness of the attackers and the number of attempts they make. The latter, in turn, depends on their motivation. If the Islamic world were to destabilise further, the risks from fundamentalism would potentially increase.

At the moment, fundamentalist terrorism is still an unpredictable gadfly, capable of delivering a sting but - in a global context - more an annoyance than a threat to civilisation. But sociopolitical changes in the Middle East and Asia might conceivably change that.

The Israeli/Palestinian problem looks no closer to a solution, despite ongoing international efforts, and the Arab Spring has emerged as a significant sociopolitical phenomenon in Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain and Libya. Syria and Iran are brutally suppressing what looks like similar popular movements in their countries.

It is impossible to determine what effect movements in this volatile region will have on global security. But unless the geopolitical situation causes the threat itself to worsen, the potential for new integrated security technologies to make checking processes less intrusive is the likeliest visible change in the medium term.

Source: Flight International