Logic seems to have deserted the airframers as airliner production rates head for record levels this year, while the world looks set for a global meltdown. T'was ever thus, we hear you say.
It's true that by its very nature the boom-bust airliner production-rate cycle has always been frustratingly out of kilter with the sector's state of health - and the industry always survived in the past. And every time the industry finds itself scrabbling to haul back output to match the new demand datum, both the suppliers and their customers pledge that they've learned their lessons: "We say 'we won't repeat those mistakes again' . We don't - we come up with some new ones!" quipped one senior airframer executive recently.
Each downturn brings new dynamics. This time it is the financing crisis that threatens to exacerbate the already fragile health of airlines as they cope with a softening of demand for air travel.
But how bad is the situation in reality? Some would have us believe that this is the downturn to end all slumps. But other respected observers remain assured that finance is available and that the market can - and wants - to take the aircraft rolling out of Seattle and Toulouse. They argue that the long run of cheap oil until recently had prompted airlines to put off their fleet replacement, meaning that there is still demand for new-builds to succeed these older, fuel-thirsty jets.
But this is a high-stakes game, as production rates - like super-tankers - take a long time to change course. So Airbus, Boeing and the regional airframers had better be sure of their sums - or face the very real prospect of rows of shiny new jets looking for homes.
Source: Flight International
