Clive Lewis of Achieving the Difference takes a look at the prospects for new entrants in the narrowbody market according to Flightglobal's Commercial Fleet Forecast.

A new generation of engines and the rise of new airframe producers have made challenging the Airbus/Boeing narrowbody duopoly a reality.

As the Bombardier CSeries, Comac C919 and Irkut MS-21 gained orders, Airbus's response was the A320neo. The rise in share of the net order intake suggests this was a good tactic.

A320 NEO 
 A320neo
Airbus ©

Boeing's Jim McNerney has spoken of the possibility of a new aircraft in 2019 or 2020 or a re-engined 737 by 2016 or 2017. The new aircraft's claimed 20% cost improvement might give Boeing the edge in the longer term at the cost of near-term market share. Re-engining might help market share in the short term but may not pay off before the type needs replacing.

New entrants have the challenge of establishing themselves in new markets. Huge demand for narrowbodies is expected in China where Bombardier has little fleet presence. Bombardier sources major assemblies there but is up against the home-grown C919. This suggests a motivation for the unlikely tie-up between Bombardier and Comac. Also, it would allow the pair to offer aircraft in the upper and lower ends of the segment.

Becoming a real threat will take time. It took Airbus 15 years and a second aircraft family (A320) to become established and a serious competitor to Boeing.

Despite military and business jet interests, it seems unlikely that Embraer will settle for ailing regional jet demand in the commercial jet market. Consideration of a 122-seat stretched E-195 or a new five-abreast aircraft have been reported. The stretch would compete directly with the CSeries and smaller Airbus and Boeing aircraft. A 145-seat new aircraft would compete with the core narrowbody offerings of Airbus and Boeing and the Irkut MS-21-200. It may come down to whether Embraer considers Bombardier or Irkut the weakest competition.

Few orders for the Irkut MS-21 are expected outside Russia and former Eastern Bloc countries. Airline Business reports "it has emerged that Aeroflot wanted incentives from the Russian government and Russian airframers in exchange for its acquisition of locally built aircraft".

To learn more about Flightglobal's Commercial Fleet Forecast and download a free Executive Summary, visit flightglobal.com/forecast.

Source: Flight Daily News